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《财富》2019全球大预言(9)

图片来源:Robyn Beck—AFP/Getty Images; Aaron M. Sprecher—AP; Kevin Mazur—BBMA18/Wireimages/Getty Images; Courtesy of Chevrolet

呈上升趋势

· Tiktok(抖音国际版)。“成年人”开始使用这款令人上瘾的视频分享软件——其“有毒的”对口型视频已经成为青少年中间的一种现象。所以我们预计它会在2020年滑坡。

· 大麻二酚。这种大麻中的化学成分不会让人飘飘然,但有抗焦虑效果。我们预计它将会流行起来,并进入到很多东西中,比如鸡尾酒,再比如沙拉调料。

· 埃隆·马斯克。他的2019年不会有2000万美元的美国证监会罚款,不会有备受瞩目的分手,也不会有对洞穴救援者的污蔑。这应该算是成功的一年。

· 耐克。支持科林·卡佩尼克和塞琳娜·威廉姆斯等“维权型”运动员延续了这个品牌在18岁至40岁关键用户群体眼中的酷劲儿。

· 比特币。加密货币投机降温,但被淘汰的是其他加密货币。投资者认为比特币是较安全的储值手段。

· 燕麦奶。它的起泡效果比豆奶好,要担心的环境问题也较少。瑞典Oatly等品牌将在明年年底前席卷所有与之相配的咖啡店。

· 麻疹。美国爆发了21世纪最严重的麻疹疫情。不断壮大的反疫苗运动让美国西南部的一个主要大都会区损失惨重。

呈下降趋势

· 枪支。鉴于控枪法案刺激销售无望,随着本行业的“特朗普萧条”继续下去,一家大型枪械制造商将宣布破产。

· 大麻股。随着美国司法部开始加强联邦法律执行力度,对大麻股的胃口将变小。

· 韩流。事实证明,防弹少年团的2018年纽约市花旗球场演唱会是韩国流行音乐在美国的巅峰之作。

· 含酒精气泡水。啤酒厂商想借LaCroix风潮推出另类酒精饮料,但消费者很快就会发现它有多难喝。

· SUV。汽油价格上涨意味着更多购车者将选择结构更紧凑的跨界休旅车(CUV),而不是过去10年独领风骚的“烧油大王”。

· Match集团。和竞争对手Bumble以及Facebook约会app的官司将让Tinder、Match.com和OkCupid的母公司损失金钱以及市场份额。

· 苹果公司。它没能拿出更好的手机,这就是问题的一部分——2018年上市的iPhone X和iPhone XR是如此优秀,以至于苹果几乎没有动力来升级2019年推出的后续产品。

 

Trending up

· TikTok. “The adults” start using the addictive video-sharing app, a phenomenon among teens for its viral lip-synching videos. So expect it to trend down in 2020..

· CBD. This chemical component of marijuana doesn’t provide a high but may deliver antianxiety effects. Expect to see it popping up as an ingredient in everything from cocktails to salad dressing.

· Elon Musk. He’ll make it through 2019 without a $20 million SEC fine, a high-profile breakup, or insults directed at cave rescuers. That counts as a win.

· Nike. Its support for the activism of athletes like Colin Kaepernick and Serena Williams sustains the brand’s coolness with its key 18-to-40 demographic.

· Bitcoin. Crypto-speculation cools, but it’s alt coins that fall by the wayside. Investors see Bitcoin as the safer store of value.

· Oat Milk. It foams up better than soy milk and comes with fewer environmental concerns. Brands like Oatly, a Swedish export, will be in every coffee shop worth its beans by the end of the year.

· Measles. The U.S. has its worst measles outbreak of the 21st century. The growing might of the vocal anti-vaxxer movement takes a devastating toll on a major metropolitan area in the Southwest.

Trending Down

· Guns. With no chance of gun-control legislation to spark sales, a major gun manufacturer will declare bankruptcy as the industry’s Trump slump continues.

· Weed Stocks. The appetite for cannabis stocks abates as the Justice Department starts ramping up enforcement of federal laws.

· K-Pop. Boy band BTS’s 2018 show at New York’s Citi Field stadium proves to be the zenith for Korean pop in America.

· Hard Seltzer. Beverage makers tried to ride the LaCroix craze by offering an alcoholic variant, but consumers will realize how bad it tastes.

· SUVs. Higher gas prices will mean more car buyers choosing the more compact Crossover Utility Vehicle (CUV) instead of the gas guzzlers that have dominated the past decade.

· Match Group. A lawsuit with Bumble and Facebook’s dating app will take money and market share away from the parent company of Tinder, Match.com, and OkCupid.

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