《财富》2019全球大预言(10)
时间:2023-09-21 01:40 来源:网络整理 作者:墨客科技 点击:次
· Apple. Its phones have never been better, and that’s part of the problem: 2018’s iPhone X and XR are so good that there’s little incentive to upgrade to their successor in 2019. ***
我们的2018年大预言表现如何。 准确命中：我们正确预测了经济繁荣的几个副作用，包括美联储可能在12个月内四次提高基准利率以及火爆的股市将再次引发IPO热潮。我们预计Lyft从出现声誉问题的Uber手中夺走的市场份额将超过预期。体育方面，我们预见到了冬奥会单板滑雪选手克洛伊·金以及NBA球员“希腊怪物”扬尼斯·阿德托昆博的统治级表现。 基本靠谱：《财富》杂志预计2018年的股市表现一般——到发稿时止，标普500指数上涨了6.6%。今年美国最高法院在商业方面有三项重大裁决，我们预见到了其中两项。我们还预测到新英格兰爱国者队、洛杉矶道奇队和克利夫兰骑士队将进入各自联赛的决赛。 预测失误：我们低估了油价，认为美国GDP增速不会达到3%。我们还预测慈善捐款将使沃伦·巴菲特的净资产缩水（结果正相反，他的资产增长了52亿美元）。另外，凯蒂·佩里、彼得·蒂尔等知名游客也没有像我们预测的那样登上太空。 预言团队： Daniel Bentley, Erika Fry, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Rachel King, Polina Marinova, McKenna Moore, Sy Mukherjee, Aaron Pressman, Lisa-Marie Segarra, Lucinda Shen, Jonathan Vanian, and Phil Wahba.（财富中文网） 本文最初刊登在2018年12月1日出版的《财富》杂志上。 译者：Charlie 审校：夏林
7. How We Did in 2018 7. On Target: We correctly predicted several side effects of a boom, including that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate four times in 12 months and that a hot stock market would fuel an IPO resurgence. We forecast that Lyft would seize more market share than expected from reputationally challenged Uber. In sports, we called the ascendancy of Olympic snowboarder Chloe Kim and the NBA’s Giannis “the Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo. In the Ballpark: Fortune foresaw a just-okay year for the stock market: The S&P 500 was up 6.6% at press time. We called two of the year’s three biggest business-related Supreme Court rulings. And we correctly sent the Patriots, Dodgers, and Cavaliers to the finals of their leagues. Off the Mark: We lowballed oil prices, predicted that U.S. GDP wouldn’t crack 3%, and divined that charitable donations would shrink Warren Buffett’s net worth (instead, he got $5.2 billion richer). And contrary to our forecast, neither Katy Perry, Peter Thiel, nor any other celebrity tourist was blasted into space. Crystal Ball Contributors: Daniel Bentley, Erika Fry, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Rachel King, Polina Marinova, McKenna Moore, Sy Mukherjee, Aaron Pressman, Lisa-Marie Segarra, Lucinda Shen, Jonathan Vanian, and Phil Wahba. This article originally appeared in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune. (责任编辑：admin) |