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《财富》2019全球大预言(8)

一连串坏消息已经有损Facebook在美国民众中的声誉。哈里斯民意调查机构最近代表《财富》杂志对2000多位美国人的调查表明,在保护用户数据方面,人们认为Facebook是最不值得信赖的大型科技公司。这样的印象很难改变。尽管斥巨资开展公共活动,但如果再次出现Cambridge Analytica级别的隐私丑闻,Facebook的品牌就可能遭受不可弥补的损害。

Instagram

科技行业分析师把Instagram视为Facebook旗下的招财童子以及未来增长的源泉,原因是这项核心社交业务看来已经在美国等地站稳了脚跟。虽然Facebook在2012年就收购了这家照片共享服务商,但Instagram的产品方向和文化一直牢牢控制在创始人凯文·希思特罗姆和迈克·克里格手中。这个强大二人组在2018年年底离去后,Facebook禁不住要插手Instagram的事务,此举激怒了40岁以下群体,也就是Instagram的主要用户群。

欧洲

这家社交媒体巨头由于数据问题在欧洲面临的罚金数额更为巨大。官方正在调查Facebook是否违反了欧盟《通用数据保护条例》,该条例旨在让用户更清晰地了解公司如何使用其数据。Facebook面临的罚款最多可能达到其全球收入的4%。

假新闻

虽然已经清理了2016年美国大选期间肆虐的大部分假消息,但Facebook的任务依然艰巨。各家新闻媒体和研究机构仍在挖掘该公司自动审核系统漏掉的误导或冒犯他人的内容。在这方面,人类编辑的作用就像试图阻止潮水的丹麦国王一样。除非Facebook显著改变自家平台传播内容的方式,同时调整业务模式,使之和用户利益一致,否则这个问题将一直存在。

 

Congress

One of the takeaways from the congressional hearings Mark Zuckerberg faced in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal was that politicians appear more open to regulating Facebook if it continues with a lackadaisical approach to safeguarding user data. With few friends in Washington—both parties blame Facebook for negatively impacting their campaigns¬—¬expect a U.S. equivalent to Europe’s strong privacy laws to find bipartisan support. Government regulation, along with the fines that come with failing to comply with new laws, could end up stifling Facebook’s growth prospects.

Public Trust

Facebook’s string of bad news has hurt the company’s reputation with the American public. A recent Harris poll survey of over 2,000 Americans, conducted on behalf of Fortune, showed that people view Facebook as the least trustworthy major tech company when it comes to safeguarding user data. That image is not easily shaken. Despite a well-funded PR blitz, another privacy scandal on the scale of Cambridge Analytica could cause irreparable brand damage.

Instagram

Tech analysts consider Instagram to be Facebook’s golden child and a source of future growth as the core social networking service appears to have plateaued in places like the U.S. Even though Facebook acquired the photo-sharing app in 2012, the product direction and culture of Instagram had been firmly under the control of its founders Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger. With that powerful duo gone as of late 2018, Facebook won’t be able to resist meddling with the app, angering the key under-40 demographic that makes up the majority of its users.

Europe

The social media giant will face more significant penalties for its data blunders in Europe. It’s being scrutinized for potential violations of the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation, intended to provide more transparency to users about how companies are using their data. The company could face fines of up to 4% of its worldwide revenue.

Fake News

Although Facebook has cleaned its service of much of the fake news that ran rampant during the 2016 U.S. election campaign, it faces an uphill battle. Various media outlets and research groups are still digging up misleading or offensive content that manages to slip through Facebook’s automated systems. Human editors are as effective in solving the problem as a Danish king stopping the tide. Unless Facebook makes drastic changes in how content is propagated on its platform and shifts its business model to align with user interests, the problem will continue.

 

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6. 谁的2019年会很棒?谁的会不那么棒?

2019年将(或无法)表现出色的公司和企业领导者。

 

6. Who’s Going to Have a Great and Not-So-Great Year

The companies and business leaders that will thrive (or not) in 2019.

 

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