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不过，第一季度的情况实属特殊：当时，比特币的价格翻了一倍多，波动性大幅上升，股迷们争相购买。随着时间的推移，Coinbase对比特币的依赖度可能会有所下降，但其利润仍将与所有加密货币的市值紧密挂钩。原因是：其交易收入源于按其交易的美元价收取的约0.5%的费用。当货币的价格翻倍时，在其他条件不变的情况下，比特币方面的收益也会翻倍。

Coinbase表示，他们会向大客户提供折扣，但以华尔街的标准来看，目前的折扣幅度还很小。折算下来，0.5%也是一笔非常庞大的收益。Coinbase之所以能够收取这些费用，是因为它是市场上最大的参与者；声誉良好；且竞争有限。不过，丰厚的费用还是会引来一些竞争者。投资者应该考虑到，首先，在未来很长一段时间内，加密货币的价格可能不会继续以这种前所未见的水平上涨；其次，激烈的费用争夺战可能会影响Coinbase在第一季度表现出的非凡盈利能力。

阿姆斯特朗提醒得很对，前方的道路将充满坎坷，并且，在很长一段时间内，可能都无法再攀高峰。投资者需要判断，在处于顶峰的情况下，比特币的价格是否还会继续上涨。（财富中文网）

译者：殷圆圆

On April 6, eight days before its planned IPO, Coinbase Global issued head-spinning results for the first quarter of 2021. The country's largest cryptocurrency exchange disclosed profitability from trading the likes of Bitcoin so gigantic that it waxes what the top Wall Street banks garner handling stocks and bonds in the best of times. Those results will rally crypto-obsessed investors on April 14, when Coinbase shares will debut on the Nasdaq in a direct listing, a trendy, damn-the-establishment choice that epitomizes the offbeat thinking of CEO Brian Armstrong.

Based on its shares sold recently in private markets, Coinbase is expected to command a market cap of around $100 billion, a figure unimaginable for a crypto exchange just a few months ago. To deliver for investors, it will eventually need to mint the kind of spectacular earnings it displayed in Q1, and race from there. But surprisingly, Armstrong is warning fans to expect the ultimate "fasten your seatbelts play," cautioning that the ride will not only be bumpy as hell, but that consistent profitability is a long way off. As he stated in the IPO registration statement filed on Feb. 25: "We may earn money when revenues are high, and we may lose money when revenues are low, but our goal is to roughly operate at breakeven, smoothed out over time, for the time being."

Operate at breakeven for the time being? That doesn't sound like a forecast that justifies a $100 billion cap that would make Coinbase the 13th most valuable financial services company in America, only $12 billion behind Goldman Sachs. To assess Coinbase's chances of achieving the huge future earnings required to reward investors buying at what's expected to be a superrich price, it's crucial to understand how its model works. Here are six takeaways from its registration statement and first-quarter release.

In Q1, Coinbase boasted returns that Wall Street seldom sees

In the Q1 update, Coinbase stated that revenues jumped to $1.8 billion, a ninefold leap over the previous year and triple the figure for Q4 of 2020. Net income rose to between $730 million and $800 million, at least quadruple the previous quarter's result. By Fortune’s estimate, operating income hit around $1.05 billion. That's a staggering return on sales of almost 60%. Not even the most profitable software and luxury goods enterprises approach those sumptuous margins.

How did Coinbase notch such amazing numbers?

In the registration statement, Coinbase discloses that in 2020, it collected almost 90% of its $1.28 billion in revenues from trading cryptocurrencies. The balance flowed from such sources as custody fees charged to institutional investors for holding their coins.

The exchange feasted from the recent crypto frenzy by doing $355 billion in trades in Q1. Assuming 90% of its revenues came from trading, as they did last year, it pocketed around 0.45% fee for every $1 in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major tokens it bought and sold. In its IPO filing, Coinbase discloses that it charges its customers fees based on the volumes they trade—the bigger the trades, the lower the fees. It's been reported that the standard fee is 0.5%. Hence, the slightly lower number it collected in Q1 makes sense, given discounts awarded the biggest clients.