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　　It has been proven ineconomic history that an increasing proportion of working-age population andfalling dependency ratio will bring about demographic dividends that propel growth.Using an econometric model, Cai and Zhao (2012) decomposed China ’spost-1978 growths into the following factors. First, as a low dependency ratiocreated conditions for a high savings rate and unlimited supply of laborbolstered marginal return to capital, capital accumulation in China has majordriver of growth. Second, an abundance of labor supply and growing levels ofeducation (human capital) are undoubtedly conducive to economic growth. Third,the transfer of labor from agriculture to urban jobs enhances resource reallocationefficiency, which is responsible for nearly half of China ’s total factor productivity(TFP) improvement. All of these factors underpinning China ’s economic growth are aresult of favorable demographics.

　　Hence, demographics cannotbe overlooked in reckoning China ’sdevelopment stage and future growth outlook. Whether demographics areconsidered or neglected will lead to vastly different conclusions in viewingstage of development, i.e., if the growth tendency of the working-agepopulation is factored in, the conclusion will be very different from thatbased on per capita GDP. Specifically, if the year when China ’s working-age population aged between 15and 59 years peaked is used as the benchmark of comparison, China ’s development stage in 2010 was actuallyequivalent to the level of Japan between 1990 and 1995, the level of South Korea between 2010 and 2015 and the level of Singapore between 2015 and 2020. Ifthe dependency ratio (population aged below 14 years plus population aged above60 years divided by population aged between 15 and 59 years), which oftenserves a proxy variable of demographic dividends in econometric modeling, isused,, the time points it bottomed for Japan, South Korea and Singapore aremuch later than the time points defined by their per capita income levels(Figure 2). For instance, while Japan ’sdependency ratio fell to the lowest point around 1970, it did not spike untilthe 1990s. The rising dependency ratios of South Korea and Singapore are generallysynchronous with China ’s.

　　That is to say,relative to per capita GDP, China ’sdemographic transition is much steeper and its turning point of demographicdividends arrives much earlier. Given China ’sthree-decade reliance on demographic dividends, which are diminishing, China ’s potential growth rate should beestimated using another approach, which leads to different forecasts of China ’seconomic outlook with very different policy implications. Based on the tendencyof demographic change and its impact on production factors and TFP, Cai Fangand Lu Yang (2013) estimated China ’spotential GDP growth between 1979 and 2020. Judging by the average numbers ofvarious timeframes, China ’spotential GDP growth was 9.66% between 1979 and 1994, 10.34% between 1995 and2010, down to 7.55% between 2011 and 2015, and is projected to further dip to6.20% between 2016 and 2020.

　　By subtracting potentialgrowth rates from actual growth rates, we may arrive at the growth gaps forvarious years (Figure 3), which help take stock of the macroeconomic volatilitysince China ’sreform and opening-up initiated in 1978. In Figure 3, the cases of actual growthrates being above potential growth rates represent positive gaps, while that ofreal growth rates being below potential growth rates represent negative gaps.In the figure, the years with significant negative gaps correspond tomacroeconomic downturns. If potential growth rate is viewed in the context of aspecific development stage, production factors supply and TFP improvementpotentials that are considered endowments of a given time can support aneconomy to realize its potential of growth; yet negative gaps normallycorrespond to cyclical disturbance from the demand side, preventing actual growthfrom reaching its potentials and production factors from being fully utilized.At this moment, such problems as insufficient utilization of production factorsas reflected in cyclical unemployment would occur. By the same token, anopposite situation is positive gaps resulting from actual growth rate abovepotential growth rate, which corresponds to economic overheating, as reflectedin inflation or economic bubbles.