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长期来看，随着英镑与欧元的滑坡，人民币的国际货币地位将显著提高。

文|熊园，盘古智库研究员

On October 7, the British pound plunged 10 percent in a matter of minutes in early trade in Asia, dropping to a 31-year low at one point before rebounding. 

There has been a wide spectrum of arguments about the reasons behind the "flash crash" of the sterling - a dominant global currency which is the legal tender of the second largest economy in the European Union and the fifth largest economy globally. I would argue that fears that British Prime Minister Theresa May might opt for a "hard Brexit" is the most direct cause for the sterling's plunge, which indicates that currency exchange rates have increasingly become a tool for political games. The implication for the yuan in all of this is that while the Chinese currency's internationalization might be challenged in the short term, in the medium- to long-term this will give the yuan a chance to rise.

As I would suggest, the trigger for the sterling's sudden plunge was May's statement that Brexit negotiations would begin by March 2017, which appears to prepare the ground for a hard Brexit, one that would pull the UK out of the single market. Previously, it was believed that Britain would be on course for a "soft Brexit" - an outcome similar to the Norway model or the Swiss solution. 

If the UK is headed for a hard Brexit, this would indisputably take a toll on both Britain and the EU. Therefore, the pound's sudden dive can be seen as a message about market fears of potential uncertainty in Britain and the EU. 

More profoundly, the plunge reflects the increasingly conspicuous political attribute of currencies. That is because foreign exchange rates respond to changes in stakeholders' interests in one country, in that, based on the country's own interests, its government seeks to achieve greater gains under the country's current account or capital account, and thus currency exchange rates have become an implement for political gaming. The pound has consistently remained a mainstream global currency, and London - the pound's main battlefield - is the world's top foreign exchange market, the second largest bond market and the third largest stock market, an indication of the breath and depth of the sterling's market clout. On further reflection, against the backdrop of low inflation, a weaker pound would create favorable conditions for British exports and also stimulate investment into the country. Many high-ranking UK government officials also believe the devaluation of the pound is not a bad thing. No wonder there have been comments in the British media that it is good that the prime minister's brief remarks prompted a drop in the pound.

Worth pointing out is that the pound's flash crash is a typical black swan incident in the history of foreign exchange transactions, although the happenstance could be explained by various so-called inevitabilities. The flash crash is decidedly a reminder of the fallout of Britain's vote to leave the EU. 

The yuan, for its part, is set to face greater pressure to devalue in the short run, as its internationalization moves will be disrupted. The pressure on the yuan to weaken is the most direct blow from Brexit on China. In the aftermath of the vote to leave the EU, the pound has dropped nearly 20 percent, while the euro has weakened over 5 percent. When Britain begins negotiations with the EU over its exit, the pound and the euro are expected to be under sustained pressure and their exchange rates will see wilder swings. The pound and the euro are component currencies of the US Dollar Index and also members of a basket of currencies that the yuan is referenced against, therefore, according to the current way that the yuan's central parity rate is set, a weaker pound and euro will force the yuan to weaken as well.

The potential decline in London as an international financial hub would also have an impact on the current internationalization of the yuan in Europe. The yuan's internationalization has sped up in recent years, as seen in China's currency swap deal with the Bank of England, the establishment of yuan clearing banks in London, the direct convertibility between the yuan and the pound and the issuance of the first yuan-denominated national debt in Britain. 

However, with Britain's withdrawal from the EU and London's possible decline as an international financial center, the Sino-British honeymoon will certainly be affected and China will need to seek a new pivot in Europe. Luckily, other European financial centers such as Frankfurt, Paris and Luxemburg have long been taking on London to become an offshore yuan center. 

In the long term, the yuan will face greater global prominence with the decline of the pound and the euro. In an effort to prevent their positions from being excessively weakened, the pound and the euro would be advised to build closer ties with the yuan.

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